Chase battle moves on to Bristol

Autoracing Betting Lines

08/17/2010 - Bristol, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Saturday, August 21. Race: IRWIN Tools Night Race. Site: Bristol Motor Speedway. Track: .533-mile oval. Start time: 7:30 p.m. (et). Laps: 500. Miles: 266.5. 2009 winner: Kyle Busch. Television: ABC. Radio: Performance Racing Network (PRN) /SIRIUS NASCAR Radio.

When the Sprint Cup Series comes to Bristol in August, it's always an action- packed affair on a hot summer night. And Saturday's race should be no different, as time is running out for many drivers to qualify for the championship Chase, which begins next month at New Hampshire.

With three races remaining in the regular season, 173 points separate 12th- place Clint Bowyer from 19th-place Juan Pablo Montoya. The top-12 drivers in points after the September 11 race at Richmond will make the Chase.

After winning last Sunday at Michigan, Kevin Harvick, the current points leader, became the first driver to lock down a position in the playoffs.

"Obviously, it's nice to go into this week's race and not have to worry about a Chase spot - better than anything going into Richmond without having to worry about a Chase spot," Harvick said. "The next three weeks are going to be a lot of fun, to go to three racetracks we've won at before and run well this year, to try to get more bonus points and get prepared for the Chase."

Two more drivers -- Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin -- could secure a Chase position at Bristol. Despite starting 33rd, Hamlin finished second at Michigan and moved up three spots to third in the standings. He is now 327 points ahead of Bowyer.

"In order to win the Chase [this] year, we were going to have to qualify better," Hamlin said. "Right now, we are just struggling so bad with qualifying. It takes us the entire race to get to the front. That's going to be a tough road to travel if we're going to try to win the championship."

Hamlin and Johnson lead the series with five victories each so far. However, Johnson has not won since the last weekend in June at New Hampshire, and Hamlin hasn't driven into victory lane since two months ago at Michigan.

Johnson is 294 points ahead of Bowyer in the fifth spot. It's a slight possibility that Johnson could secure his Chase spot at Bristol, but the four- time defending series champion most likely will qualify for the playoffs on Labor Day weekend at Atlanta.

In March, Johnson won at Bristol for the first time in 17 starts here. He also claimed his 50th career Cup victory.

"We ran so well there in the spring," Johnson said. "Even last year, we had great spring and fall races. The night race has always been one of my favorites and look forward to being competitive, and hopefully go back to victory lane there."

The best battle in the "Race for the Chase" right now is between Bowyer and 13th-place Mark Martin. The two are in a tight battle for the final Chase eligible spot. They have swapped the 12th and 13th positions in the last two races.

At Michigan, Bowyer finished 13th, while Martin had a disappointing 28th-place run.

"We have three races to go to get it done and, and if we continue to have runs like this, we can race our way into the Chase," Bowyer said.

Martin, who finished second to champion and Hendrick Motorsports teammate Johnson in last year's Chase, trails Bowyer by 35 points.

"I don't know what they are," Martin said of his chances making the 2010 Chase. "We'll keep digging. I don't know. Every race is a new race."

Ryan Newman, who presently holds the 14th spot, is 103 points behind Bowyer, while 15th-place Jamie McMurray trails by 105 points.

Kasey Kahne, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and David Reutimann are 16th through 18th in points, respectively. All three drivers will need strong performances at Bristol if they want to improve their chances of making the Chase. Montoya will have to do the same as well.

This will be the 100th Cup race at Bristol, with the first event running here on July 30, 1961. Jack Smith won the race, despite driving relief from Johnny Allen. The first night race at Bristol was held in August 1978. Darrell Waltrip holds the record for most wins at Bristol with 12, while Gordon and Kurt Busch lead all active drivers with five victories each here. Kurt's younger brother, Kyle, won both races at Bristol during the 2009 season. Kyle finished ninth here earlier this year.

"I look forward to going there always," Busch said. "We struggled there in the spring for some reason. All of [Joe Gibbs Racing] did. We all blew right-front tires out, and we all got into the fence, but we salvaged a decent day."

Kyle Busch, as well as Brad Keselowski and Elliott Sadler, will compete in all three of NASCAR's national touring series races at Bristol this week.

Fifty teams are on the preliminary entry list for the IRWIN Tools Night Race.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

Elite 8 NCAA Tournament Betting at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com

In what should be an outstanding Saturday of March Madness betting action, the top four teams in the South and West Regions square off in what should be extremely close match-ups. Three of the four teams are coming off extremely close games on Thursday evening, only UCLA won semi comfortably over Pitt 64-55.

Ohio State is coming off their second game in a row where in all reality they should have lost. Of course that doesn’t matter now since the name of the game is “survive and advance” but as the tournament continues, they can’t afford to keep getting down to their opponents early. Kansas also avoided a scare by holding off a scrappy Southern Illinois squad. In the third thrilling game of the evening Memphis pulled off the minor upset (+3.5) despite being the higher seed to Texas A&M.

Although the spreads are fairly small for Saturday’s games, MySportsbook.com continue to bet against the underdogs. Despite OSU’s two scares, 86% of the “betting public” feels the Buckeyes (-1.5) have what it takes to make the Final Four. In fact, so much of the early money is on OSU that the line has already moved from -1 to -1.5. In the second game of the doubleheader, Kansas and their high-powered offense are 2 point favorites as they take on UCLA and their effective defense. About 63% of the early money thus far is once again backing the favorites. If those percentages stay that high, don’t be surprised if this line moves as well. If you like Kansas (-2) you might want to jump on it early.

Memphis vs. Ohio State

Both squads were involved in thrillers on Thursday evening and should come out fired up. OSU can ill afford to get behind early like they did versus their previous two opponents (Xavier, Tennessee). Greg Oden needs to stay out of foul trouble; the Buckeyes are a completely different team when he is on the court. Memphis definitely has the athleticism and length to match-up with OSU. Of Memphis’ five leading minute earners, the shortest of the bunch is 6’5”. Each team has a very effective defense; Memphis surrenders 62.3 PPG whereas the Buckeyes give up only 61 PPG. With those type of numbers, it isn’t surprising that Memphis covered the UNDER almost 69% of the time this season. As a favorite, OSU has covered the UNDER almost 66% of the time over the last three seasons. The major concern for Memphis which is magnifies this time of the year is their brutal foul shooting (62%). This season, OSU is 17-11 ATS versus teams with a winning record and 7-2 ATS in all tournament games. Memphis has been an extremely reliable cover in tournament play in recent years with a 23-8 ATS record over the last three seasons.

UCLA vs. Kansas

In the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader, UCLA will play in a role which they are very unfamiliar with that of the underdog. Only twice this season have they been getting points from the handicappers and both times they covered. Over the last three seasons UCLA is a reliable 23-7 ATS in this unfamiliar role. UCLA has not fared well against Big 12 opponents recently going 1-7 ATS since 1997. Giving up only 59.6 PPG, UCLA will definitely look to do what they do best: keep this game as low scoring as possible. Their defense has been especially tough during the tournament. UCLA opponents have been able to muster up only 48.7 PPG while shooting a combined 34.5% from the field. UCLA definitely has a challenge at hand with a Kansas team that is capable of putting points on the board in bunches. As a team, they average 79 PPG and shoot an impressive 49.6% from the field and 39.4% from beyond the arc. During the tournament Kansas has been “lights out” from the field having shot 56.2%.

With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action.  Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”.  By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.

To bet on March Madness games this online sportsbook accepts credit cards