Braun helps Chivas tame Crew

Soccer Betting Lines

08/01/2010 - Carson, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chivas USA rolled to a surprising 3-1 win over the Columbus Crew at The Home Depot Center on Saturday behind a pair of late first-half goals.

Justin Braun tallied his seventh goal of the season in the 37th minute before Blair Gavin scored shortly before halftime, doubling the lead. Carlos Borja then notched his first MLS goal in the 53rd minute, putting Chivas well on its way to three points before a late goal from Steven Lenhart spoiled the clean sheet.

The Goats victory gives the team eight points from its last four games following a six-game losing skid, while Columbus saw its modest two-game win streak halted.

Rodolfo Espinoza provided the service on the opening goal with a left-wing cross toward the middle of the penalty area that was met by a powerful header from Braun, who sent the ball sailing past goalkeeper Will Hesmer and inside the right post.

The lead was then doubled thanks to some poor defending by the Crew, with Chivas goalkeeper Dan Kennedy starting the move with a long clearance from the back.

The Crew back line allowed the ball to bounce, and after it came off of a defender, Gavin pounced to fire the ball past Hesmer.

It took only eight minutes into the second half for Chivas to take complete control as Giancarlo Maldonado assisted on Borja's goal before Lenhart took down a cross from Jason Garey and lobbed the ball over the head of Kennedy for a goal two minutes from time for the Crew.

Veggas Soccer Betting News

<< Montero stays hot as Sounders down Earthquakes
Santa Clara, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fredy Montero headed home the lone goal of the game in the 26th minute as Seattle Sounders FC handed the San Jose Earthquakes a 1-0 defeat at Buck Shaw Stadium on Saturday. Montero continued his

<< Guerrero's bat, Harden's arm helps Rangers down Angels
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Vladimir Guerrero's two-run homer in the fourth inning was enough against his former team as the AL West-leading Rangers edged the Angels, 2-1, in the middle installment of a three-game series. Nelson Cruz ex

<< Titans agree to terms with top pick Morgan
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tennessee Titans have reportedly agreed to terms with defensive end Derrick Morgan, their first-round draft pick. WVLT television in Nashville is reporting that it is a five-year deal for the 16th overal

<< Uggla sets club HR mark in Marlins' win over Padres
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dan Uggla became the Marlins all-time home run leader and Ricky Nolasco was solid in 8 1/3 innings on the mound, as Florida held off San Diego, 6-3, in the second test of a three-game set at Petco P

<< RSL thumps United
Sandy, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Second-half goals from Robbie Findley and Nelson Gonzalez propelled Real Salt Lake to a 3-0 win over D.C. United at Rio Tinto Stadium on Saturday. Alvaro Saborio put Salt Lake in front after 13 minutes, while

Murray to face Querrey for Los Angeles title >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defending champion Sam Querrey battled back from a set down to defeat sixth-seeded Janko Tipsarevic, while top seed Andy Murray outlasted Feliciano Lopez in the semifinals Saturday at the $700,00

Sharapova to play Azarenka in Stanford final >>
Stanford, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fifth-seeded Maria Sharapova and eighth- seeded Victoria Azarenka both won their semifinal matches on Saturday to set up the final at the $700,000 Bank of the West Classic tennis event. Russia's Sharapova bo

Burris leads Stampeders over Winnipeg >>
Calgary, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Henry Burris threw for 340 yards and a pair of touchdowns, and the Calgary Stampeders held on to defeat the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, 23-20, at McMahon Stadium Burris converted 28-of-38 pass attempts and adde

Earl Thomas in fold for Seahawks >>
Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Seattle Seahawks have reportedly come to terms with first-round draft pick safety Earl Thomas on a five-year contract. The Seattle Post Intelligencer reported Thomas, the 14th overall pick out of Texas, wil

Siddikur a playoff winner in Brunei >>
Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Siddikur parred the first extra hole Sunday to defeat Jbe Kruger and win the Brunei Open. Siddikur had closed with a four-under 67, while Kruger posted a five-under 66. They finished at 16-under

Barry Bonds Watch: Giants Slugger Says He'll Be Back

With only 21 home runs standing between him and Hank Aaron, Barry Bonds is indeed planning on coming back for more in 2007. At least, that's what his agent told the Los Angeles Times.

"Barry's going to play in 2007," Jeff Borris of Beverly Hills Sports Council told the Times on Tuesday. "I've had many discussions with Barry and he's going to play. My intentions are to see to it he's in a big-league uniform next season. Those are my marching orders."

Contract negotiations could get started as early as next week. Let's see which team has the deeper pockets. Will MLB baseball betting lines despite allegations of steroid use? Bet On It at www.MySportsbook.com .

Get all your baseball betting lines, MLB lines and MLB team props at the My Sportbook.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your baseball sportsbook needs.

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.